A No. 7 seed unseats a No. 2 in the NCAA tournament’s second round about twice every three years, but there was something about Michigan State’s upset of Virginia on Sunday that felt more routine than that. Perhaps it was the fact that the Spartans had toppled the Cavaliers just last season, but beyond that, no second-week tournament run from Michigan State qualifies as surprising at this point. As you might have heard, Izzo’s Spartans are now 13-1 all-time in the round of 32, and they’ve visited the Final Four more often (six times) than they’ve lost in the tournament’s opening weekend (five times).Digging deeper into the numbers only solidifies Izzo’s reputation as Mr. March. A few years ago, FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver wrote about how unlikely Izzo’s teams were to have consistently advanced as far as they did from the seeds at which they started — and that was at the very beginning of the five-season stretch (from 2010-present) where the Spartans advanced to four regional semifinals and one regional final. By any standard, Izzo’s teams tend to wildly exceed their expectations once the NCAA tournament commences.We can track where Izzo ranks among all tournament coaches in the 64-team bracket era1Since 1985. by comparing his actual wins to the number we’d expect of a team with the same seedings and pre-tournament Simple Rating System (SRS) ratings. And — spoiler alert — he’s No. 1 by a wide margin.To illustrate the method, a typical No. 7 seed would expect to win about 0.9 games per tournament, on average, while a No. 7 seed with an SRS 2.9 points better than the seed average — like Michigan State this season — would expect to win about 1.0 games per tournament. (This accounts for teams that may be over- or under-seeded according to their power rating.) Here’s how the expected-win curve looks across all seeds:When we factor 2015 in (according to the FiveThirtyEight model, Michigan State is expected to win 3.1 games this year, 2 more than you’d normally expect), Izzo’s Spartans have won 14.6 more tournament games than would be expected from their seedings and pre-tournament SRS ratings. Here’s how that figure stacks up against all other Division I coaches since 19852In the table, “Year(s)” denotes the range of years between the coach’s first and last NCAA tournament appearances in the 64-team era, which started in 1985.:Izzo’s performance is almost seven standard deviations above average, lending further credence to Nate’s assertion that Izzo isn’t simply the outlier you’d expect to naturally arise in a data set of 523 coaches. Rather, there seems to be something very real — whether it’s coaching, or perhaps recruiting the types of players whose styles suit March Madness — about Izzo’s ability to take his Michigan State teams much further in the tournament than the numbers or seedings say they ought to go.Disclosure: East Lansing native Nate Silver was not involved in the writing or editing of this article in any way.Check out FiveThirtyEight’s March Madness predictions.
With 17:25 left to go in the first period of a December National Hockey League game between the Philadelphia Flyers and the Edmonton Oilers, the Oilers gathered the puck in their defensive end and passed it ahead to Jordan Eberle, who was headed up the left side of the ice. The Flyers’ defensemen — Kimmo Timonen and Braydon Coburn — were well positioned, but Eberle decided to challenge them. He cut diagonally across the ice towards Timonen, drove wide to the far boards, put on a burst of speed and beat Timonen to enter the offensive zone.Somewhere, Jessica Schmidt was watching. She has spent the last two seasons tracking each entry into the offensive zone with a spreadsheet open in front of her. A 26-year-old diehard hockey fan, she had read some articles I wrote about the Flyers’ zone entries in the 2011-12 season and the usefulness of zone entries in assessing a team’s performance. When the Flyers missed the playoffs in 2013, she wanted to know what had gone wrong and volunteered to try recording the zone entries herself.That information doesn’t come easily, however. Schmidt estimates that tracking a game takes her about 90 minutes, which means that it would take an incredible amount of dedication and effort from several people to collect a year’s worth of data for a handful of teams. It would take a whole platoon of volunteers to track zone entries for every NHL game, and even then they would be capturing only specific pieces of select key moments. An NBA analyst wouldn’t need someone like Schmidt to put in hundreds of hours tracking zone entries; that sort of information — and much more — is easily gleaned from the NBA’s automated video tracking system, SportVu. But hockey lacks the position-tracking systems that many other sports use, even though there are hugely important lessons their data can teach.Instead, it has people like Schmidt. As Eberle drove around Timonen into the offensive zone, Schmidt made a note in her spreadsheet: “1 17:22 C Opp 44.” Translation: in the first period, with 17:22 left, there was a carry-in (C) by the Flyers’ opponent defended by the Flyers’ No. 44, Timonen.That last part — who defended the play — was a new wrinkle Schmidt and I added this year. Previous analysis had given us important insight into the performance of the puck-carrier, but assessment of the other nine skaters on the ice relied largely on inference. This year, I asked Schmidt to include some off-puck information — things like which player retrieved the puck when the Flyers dumped it in, or who had primary defensive responsibility on the opponent’s entry.Tracking by Schmidt and others has helped explain that a team’s entry into the offensive zone has a big impact on its shot differential. Carrying the puck into the offensive zone leads to more than twice as many shots and goals as a dump-and-chase play does, even after removing plays like odd-man rushes and dump-ins that are made just to buy time for a line change. These results have even made an impact on strategy.Schmidt’s data from this season allows us to evaluate individual defensive contributions for the first time, which we couldn’t do with traditional box scores and play-tracking. It’s clear, for example, that the Flyers have generally controlled play when Timonen and Coburn were both on the ice, but it’s hard to tell how much each player contributed on the defensive end.1The NHL’s play-by-play data attempts to measure defensive effort by recording events such as hits, blocked shots and takeaways. However, in practice, these plays show no correlation with success, so hockey analysts have had to turn to other methods. We can try to infer individual ability by comparing how two players perform when one is on the ice and the other is not. But the data is complex, confounded by differences in their deployment, who else was playing during those minutes and simple variance.But with Schmidt’s data we can track what happens off the puck, and gain enough granularity to examine defenders’ performance as opponents are advancing into the Flyers’ zone. Timonen and Coburn are the Flyers’ top defensive pair by any measure — they play the most minutes, face the toughest competition and have the best Corsi ratings (a plus/minus stat based on shot attempts) among the team’s defensemen. Timonen’s Corsi is actually higher than Coburn’s, as is his plus/minus, the metric most used historically to assess defensive success. Timonen is paid a lot more, too, carrying a $6 million cap hit as compared to Coburn’s $4.5 million. But while Timonen is undoubtedly a more skilled puck-mover, Schmidt’s data provides the first strong statistical evidence that Coburn may be making the bigger defensive contribution.Opposing teams seem to be attacking Timonen’s side of the ice somewhat more often than Coburn’s. Through 70 games, it was 25 percent more common for Timonen’s man to attempt a zone entry when both Timonen and Coburn were on the ice together. There’s good reason for teams to stay away from Coburn: Opponents are 16 percent less likely to successfully carry the puck into the offensive zone when attacking his side of the ice — and more than twice as likely to see the play broken up altogether.The two players saw about the same number of dump-and-chase plays (25 percent for Coburn, 22 percent for Timonen), but Coburn managed to completely break plays up more than twice as often as Timonen did (14 percent versus 6 percent of the time). Of the Flyers’ seven defensemen to see regular playing time, Coburn has been targeted least frequently, has allowed opponents the fewest carry-ins and has forced the most failed entry attempts.2When dealing with a new stat, it’s important to think about whether, and to what extent, the observed differences can be attributed to skill rather than to simple random chance. One way of assessing that is by comparing players’ performances in odd-numbered games to even-numbered games; if the stat is measuring a repeatable talent, then the two should be highly correlated. In this case, for the six Flyers defensemen who have played at least half the season, the correlations are quite strong — 0.89 for carry-ins against and 0.73 for entries denied. Six players isn’t a large enough sample to draw firm conclusions, but we can be reasonably confident that our stats represent meaningful differences among players.Coburn has clearly been the player helping the Flyers obtain possession at the defensive end. Without Schmidt, we wouldn’t know that with any accuracy because Coburn’s results have come from a collection of small plays, unrecorded in the box score and overlooked by most observers.The magic of analytics is in recording all of the small things lost to memory that add up to something significant. As this sort of micro-tracking spreads and eventually becomes automated, we’ll get better and better at capturing and valuing the cumulative impact of these small plays. Once teams can easily access a season’s worth of data — along with zone exits, passing maps, shooting tendencies, defensive positioning and the rest of it — there will inevitably be significant changes in both evaluation and strategy.To do that, though, the NHL needs some type of automated tracking system. Some companies are trying to build one, and teams recognize what video analysis can offer. People in NHL front offices are enthusiastic about such systems’ potential and anticipate video tracking making a big impact in a few years.“The biggest limitation right now, based on the people I have talked to, seems to be the cost and labor involved with mining the data,” said Josh Flynn, assistant to the general manager of the Columbus Blue Jackets.Michael Peterson, a statistical analyst for the Tampa Bay Lightning, says that in particular, “it’s difficult for them to pick up the puck on the video, so there is a lot of manual processing time that goes into tracking the puck.” Unlike a basketball, a hockey puck is small and rapidly darts between sticks and skates, making it hard to keep it on camera.Peterson suggested that fully automated puck-tracking might require embedding an RFID chip in the puck. He further noted that tracking stick placement can be quite important to assessing defensive positioning and might also require RFID tagging.Marc Appleby, the CEO of PowerScout Hockey, one of the companies meeting with teams about advanced tracking, said his company already provides data on all player and puck movements, which he feels makes it “easy to break down defensive positioning.” He added that while stick locations aren’t captured currently, it’s something that could eventually be done via video alone.One way or another, it seems all but inevitable that the requisite data is coming. Today, manual tracking of zone entries records an important component of how individual players drive their teams’ success. But there’s more to be had. When automated video tracking comes to the NHL, Schmidt and others like her will be eclipsed by systems vastly more complex but with data that’s far more public. And if they aren’t? Schmidt said, “I’d most likely continue to track entries the same way I always have.”
Well, we told you there was a chance. Wisconsin has defeated Kentucky, ending the first run at perfection in men’s college basketball in nearly 40 years. The FiveThirtyEight model said there was a 31 percent chance that Wisconsin would win that game — and the 31 percent came to pass.For months, we’ve tracked Kentucky’s chances of going undefeated, and it was only after the Wildcats made the Elite Eight that they became more likely than not to be perfect. Even a team as good as Kentucky has a good chance of being defeated in any given game (it isn’t the UConn women’s squad, after all), and it only takes one game to spoil a run. Coming into Saturday night’s game, Kentucky had a 53 percent chance of winning it all. No matter how inevitable Kentucky’s undefeated run seemed, it was still basically a coin flip whether they would do what no team in the modern era had done.Speaking of coin flips, Wisconsin will face Duke on Monday night, and the model has spit out another 53 percent probability. This time, it’s Wisconsin who’s likely to win the championship 53 percent of the time. On the other side, Duke has a 47 percent chance of cutting down the nets. For both teams, that’s radically more of a chance to win than they started the tournament with. Wisconsin had a 10 percent chance of winning the tournament (and a 15 percent chance of making the finals) a few weeks ago; Duke had a 6 percent chance of winning it all.More improbable than Kentucky not being in the final was that it’d be these two teams instead. Check out FiveThirtyEight’s March Madness predictions.CORRECTION (April 5, 1:21 a.m.): An earlier version of this article incorrectly said that Kentucky became more likely than not to go undefeated when it made the Sweet 16. That was true when it made the Elite Eight.
Embed Code Hot Takedown If you’re a fan of our podcasts, be sure to subscribe on Apple Podcasts and leave a rating/review. That helps spread the word to other listeners. And get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments. Tell us what you think, send us hot takes to discuss and tell us why we’re wrong. Links to what we discuss in this week’s show:FiveThiryEight’s statistical guide to the 2015 NBA playoffs.Nate Silver’s proposal to fix the NBA lottery.The Skip Bayless-Tim Tebow autotune song.Significant Digit: The first-place Red Bulls and their European-starless roster. More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS | Embed Welcome to this week’s episode of Hot Takedown, our podcast where the hot sports takes of the week meet the numbers that prove them right or tear them down. On this week’s show (for April 21, 2015), we’re joined by special guest Caitlin Kelly of The New Yorker, filling in for Neil Paine. We discuss the NBA playoffs, why the Golden State Warriors are so good, and why the Philadelphia Sixers and New York Knicks had such perverse incentives all season long. We also get into why everyone has a hot take about Tim Tebow. And our significant digit this week is one — that’s where you can find the New York Red Bulls ranked in the MLS standings, after everyone said New York FC would eclipse them as the city’s favorite soccer team.Stream the episode by clicking the play button above, or subscribe using one of the podcast clients below.
OSU freshman Jaclyn Lee tees of during a match. Credit: Courtesy of Ohio State AthleticsOhio State women’s golfer Jaclyn Lee will not only be representing the Buckeyes in 2016 but also the 2016 Canadian national amateur team, as the freshman from Calgary, Alberta, was recently named to the roster.Golf Canada selects five amateur men and women to join the national squad each year with the hope of preparing them for a future professional golf career, according to its website. The selections are made based on objective performance results.“I’m extremely blessed to be given the opportunity to be one of those five people,” Lee said. “It feels great. It’s definitely a reward for the season that I had last year and to know that hard work is paying off.”The freshman had spent the previous two years on the Team Canada Development Squad, which pushed her to work even harder.“I’ve seen the benefits to being a national squad member, all the support you get in terms of coaching, and the team kind of becomes another family to you. So that’s definitely motivated me,” Lee said. “We have access to so many resources, but it’s really up to you to take advantage of them.”OSU freshman Jaclyn Lee. Credit: Courtesy of Ohio State AthleticsOSU women’s golf coach Therese Hession said having someone of Lee’s caliber on the squad is an honor.“Somebody who really is one of the top five amateurs in all of Canada, obviously we’re really excited to have her on board,” Hession said. “I think the opportunity is fun, as a coach, to have somebody that’s at that level.”When she was around 11 years old, Lee said her father introduced her and her sister to golf with the intentions of it becoming a family sport.“I didn’t really expect too much of golf, but then my sister and I kind of picked it up a bit more naturally than others,” Lee said. “We’ve been enjoying it and started to do competitive golf. From then on it was kind of like, ‘Oh, get a scholarship to go play in the states.’”The Buckeyes completed the first half of their schedule on Oct. 25. Lee averaged a score of 75 in her nine rounds played and contributed four scores out of six rounds to the team total when in the OSU lineup.Lee said she is still adjusting to collegiate time management, but she knows what she needs to work on when the Buckeyes resume play in the spring.“From the fall season, we’ve all taken away things that we need to work on with our game and as a team. There are different aspects of my game that I’d like to work on over this offseason, and hopefully that will translate into a better spring season for the team,” Lee said.Hession said she is impressed with what she has seen from Lee so far.“I think mechanically her swing is very solid, and I’ve been impressed with her controlling her emotions on the golf course while she’s competing,” Hession said. “She picks things up very quickly, and she’s got a good work ethic to go along with it as well.”Lee, who calls finishing 16th at the Canadian Women’s Amateur and taking home titles at the Alberta Ladies Amateur and Albert Junior Girls championships as her biggest accomplishments, has goals at the collegiate level and beyond.“I want to learn a lot from coach here at Ohio State and hopefully get some individual titles and some team wins. Hopefully our team can get a national championship under our belt,” Lee said. “After college, I’d like to turn pro and be successful on the LPGA circuit at some point.”Lee and the women’s golf team are set to return to action Feb. 7 in Palos Verdes, California, at the Northrop Grumman Regional Challenge.
OSU then-redshirt freshman Nathan Tomasello during a match against Minnesota on Feb. 6 at the Schottenstein Center. Credit: Lantern File PhotoThe hostile environment of nearly 16,000 Nittany Lion fans proved to be too much for the Ohio State wrestling team on Friday, as the Buckeyes fell to top-ranked Penn State.OSU led twice early on but was never able to stretch out a sizeable lead, and a flurry of top-ranked wrestlers for Penn State were too much for the Scarlet and Gray to keep up with.Penn State (13-0, 8-0) lost two of the first three individual bouts to OSU (9-3, 6-2), but picked up the pace later on to earn a 24-14 win.In the evening’s first bout, redshirt sophomore Nathan Tomasello started things off right for OSU, picking up a victory against redshirt senior Nico Megaludis.Tomasello was able to escape early in the second period to gain the lead. A defensive stalemate made the crowd at the Bryce Jordan Center tense, holding its breath all the way until the final whistle.Tomasello scrambled well near the end of the bout and was able to score a takedown with just 15 seconds left to earn a 3-1 decision victory.The redshirt sophomore increased his winning streak to an impressive 34-match mark, which leads the nation at the 125-pound weight class.With the momentum on its side, OSU would continue to the dual-meet with redshirt senior Johnni DiJulius at 133 pounds.DiJulius drew a tough opponent in senior Jordan Conaway, who is ranked fifth in the nation.After DiJulius started off with a quick pace and an early lead of 4-0, Conaway came roaring back to score seven unanswered points, also picking up a bonus point to win 8-4.With DiJulius working for back points near the edge of the circle in front of the OSU bench, the whistle was blown and called for the wrestlers to reset in the middle. OSU coach Tom Ryan was clearly animated after the call.DiJulius is now 13-5 on the year and 4-4 in the Big Ten.Redshirt freshman Micah Jordan walked onto the mat with the team score notched even at 3-3 and continued his strong season by beating All-American junior Jimmy Gulibon.Jordan scored a takedown right before the whistle to end the third period, going on to win 6-3 to put OSU on top by the same score.The Buckeyes then turned to sophomore Sal Marandino at 149 pounds to face sophomore Zain Retherford.Retherford entered the match undefeated on the season, while also holding the top spot in the nation.Marandino was under constant pressure from the Nittany Lion sophomore and was unable to fight off the offense. Retherford picked up the win by fall, giving Penn State six team points.OSU redshirt freshman Jake Ryan returned to the starting lineup at 157 pounds after sitting out the last two dual-meets, while Penn State presented another No. 1 overall wrestler in the bout in redshirt freshman Jason Nolf.Nolf attacked early, constantly attacking the legs of Ryan, while preventing Ryan from maneuvering into scoring positions.Ryan sustained a hard hit to his head during a strong shot by Nolf, and the match was stopped to evaluate for a possible concussion. Ryan was cleared by the OSU trainer but could not overcome Nolf, dropping the match 19-6.After the intermission, the Scarlet and Gray found themselves down 13-6, with the 165-pound match up next.Redshirt sophomore Bo Jordan would be who the Buckeyes would turn to against junior Geno Morelli to try and turn the meet around.Morelli was unranked coming into the match, but it was anything from one-sided. Jordan could not find a way to finish his shots and could only manage one takedown against the Nittany Lion junior.However, despite the tougher-than-advertised affair, Jordan secured a win by keeping Morelli at bay in the third to win 3-2 and maintain unbeaten on the season and pick up his 13th win this year.OSU freshman Myles Martin matched up against redshirt freshman Bo Nickal next, in what proved to be one of the most intense matches of the meet.After a scoreless first, Martin found himself ahead at the end of the second period, with a 2-1 lead.Nickal would fight back into the mix and tie the score at 4-4. Martin earned an escape to put himself back up, but Nickal stayed active and went on to win 11-5. With a 16-9 Penn State lead in the team scores, redshirt senior Kenny Courts found no offense against sophomore Matt McCutcheon, scoring no points for the third time this season.Courts could not escape McCutcheon and found himself caught in the grasp of the Nittany Lion for most of the evening before losing 4-0.Penn State rolled out its fourth and final top-ranked wrestler with senior Morgan McIntosh.Redshirt junior Josh Fox was on the mat for the Buckeyes, and he kept things close in the first period, with McIntosh up 2-0 at the end of one. In the remainder of the match, however, McIntosh continued to lead, eventually going on to win 24-9.Even though the Nittany Lions had a team win securely in hand, the night ended on a high note for the Buckeyes at heavyweight.Sophomore Kyle Snyder dominated throughout his bout against freshman Jan Johnson, posting 18 points in the first period alone. Snyder would post the most points by any Buckeye on the evening, racking up 25 before his technical fall victory.Penn State remains perfect on the season with two opponents left on its schedule, while OSU is next set to return home to St. John Arena to meet the Wisconsin Badgers at 7 p.m. on Feb. 12 to round out the regular season. Correction 2/6: An earlier version of the story said Penn State had two ranked opponents remaining on its schedule, when in fact one of its opponents is ranked.
OSU junior left-hander Tanner Tully (16) delivers a pitch against Coastal Carolina on Feb. 27. OSU won 6-4.Credit: Courtesy of OSUThe Ohio State baseball team entered its Coastal Carolina trip with an unblemished record, sitting at 3-0-1 after a quick start to the season. That unbeaten start was abruptly put to a screeching halt, as Duke crushed OSU 8-1 Friday afternoon.OSU’s hitters were stymied by Duke’s ace Bailey Clark. Over six strong innings, the 6-foot-5 right-handed junior recorded 10 strikeouts, while the Blue Devil offense was powered by sophomore center fielder Evan Dougherty, who smashed three home runs in four at-bats.Redshirt sophomore pitcher Adam Niemeyer (0-1) was tagged with the loss for OSU, dropping the Buckeyes’ record to 3-1-1. The righty from Minster, Ohio, threw 6.2 innings for the Buckeyes, allowing four earned runs and striking out seven, one shy of his career high.OSU’s only offense in the loss came from junior left fielder Ronnie Dawson, who hit his first home run of the season to center field in the bottom of the sixth inning. Game 2OSU quickly turned the page on its first loss on the season on Saturday to grab a 6-4 victory over the No. 19 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, the host of the tournament.OSU’s offense was powered by the long ball, as the Buckeyes crushed three home runs, moving their season total to 10 through six games.The first homer came from the bat of senior co-captain Nick Sergakis. The three-run blast to left-center field pulled the Buckeyes out of a 2-0 hole in the fourth inning. The Columbus native said he had a lot of emotions running through him as he ran around the bases versus the club he transferred to OSU from, but he was able to keep himself in check.“Maybe if I was a little younger, and a little more pissed off at them, I would have shown it a little more,” the third baseman said in a postgame interview posted to the team’s Twitter account. “I tried to act professional because it was early in the game, and it only put us up at the time being. I knew what type of team they coach over there, and what type of players they recruit. I knew it was going to be a fight to the finish.”OSU’s surge in the fourth was continued by freshman designated hitter Brady Cherry, who hit his first career homer to plate senior first baseman Zach Ratcliff, pushing OSU’s lead to 5-2. Cherry would later add his second home run of the game with a solo blast in the eighth inning, which proved to be plenty of run support for junior ace Tanner Tully and the OSU bullpen.In total, Tully fanned a career-high nine batters over 5.1 innings of work, earning his second win of the season (2-0). The combined effort of sophomore righty Seth Kinker and senior lefty Michael Horejsei protected the OSU lead into the eighth inning, where redshirt sophomore Yianni Pavlopoulos took over.Needing five outs for OSU’s fourth win of the year, the Homer Glen, Illinois, native picked off the lead runner, then stuck out four more batters to earn his first career save. In total, OSU’s pitching staff combined for 13 strikeouts in the win.OSU coach Greg Beals said he was pleased to see his team respond a day after experiencing something it hadn’t in many months: a loss.“It’s a big win against a great program in their ballpark today,” Beals said in a press release. “I really liked the fact that we did it on the heels after not playing very well yesterday. The character that we showed to bounce back — it was good to come in here and get a win.“We did a lot of little things right today, too. We used a couple pickoff plays that we’ve been working on during the offseason and also had a big out on a bunt play. The home runs look great on the scoresheet, but we did the little things right this afternoon.”OSU is set to continue its trip in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, with two more games. The Buckeyes are scheduled to face Liberty on Sunday at 1 p.m. before a rematch against Coastal Carolina on Monday at 4 p.m.
OSU redshirt senior offensive lineman Pat Elflein (65) poses for pictures with fans after the Buckeyes 62-3 win against Maryland on Nov. 12. Credit: Alexa Mavorgianis | Photo EditorReturning for his fifth year, Ohio State redshirt senior center Pat Elflein has been a driving force of OSU’s running attack. His ability and leadership was awarded on Thursday night, as Elflein was selected as the recipient of the Rimington Trophy. The Rimington Trophy is presented to the nation’s best center, and is selected by determining the consensus All-American from the Walter Camp, Sporting News and Football Writers Association of America All-American teams.“I am incredibly grateful to the representatives of the Rimington Trophy and to those who selected me to win this award,” Elflein said. “I am truly honored and proud to win this award and to be able accept it here in Atlanta with my family.”Elflein and the Buckeyes will travel to Phoenix to face the Clemson Tigers in the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl, and look to advance to the College Football Playoff National Championship.
Ohio State redshirt junior forward Keita Bates-Diop (33) prepares to take a three-pointer in the second half of the game against Penn State on Jan. 25 in the Schottenstein Center. Credit: Jack Westerheide | Photo EditorOhio State redshirt junior forward Keita Bates-Diop fell to the ground after drilling his third consecutive 3-pointer in one minute, this shot tying Penn State at 79.Bates-Diop immediately stood up, raising both hands with three fingers pointing up, signifying his latest triple. With just five seconds remaining in the game, Ohio State’s bench went wild. All of a sudden, after trailing for 37 minutes and 26 seconds of the game, overtime seemed inevitable.Then, sophomore guard Tony Carr released an off-balance, near-half-court shot. The jubilation turned to disbelief when the ball hit the backboard and went through the net to give Penn State the 82-79 upset victory against Ohio State Thursday.The shot wasn’t the result of bad defense. It was just bad luck.“I think two of our guys contested the shot and he ended up double-pumping and throwing it up. It was a crazy shot,” Ohio State senior forward Jae’Sean Tate said. “Hat off to him he played a great game, he was very hard to stop tonight.” Hitting two 3s in a minute, including one well beyond the 3-point line with 10 seconds remaining, Bates-Diop gave the Buckeyes hope. There was still a chance they could pull off a win after trailing the Nittany Lions by nine with less than three minutes remaining.But emotions shifted in a matter of seconds, when Carr made his fourth 3-pointer, this one coming from near half-court. As junior guard C.J. Jackson watched Carr’s shot bank off the glass and fall in, he immediately fell flat on the court in disappointment while the Penn State bench went into a frenzy, dogpiling on the court beside him. Fans at the Schottenstein Center exited the stands shocked and devastated.The game ended on two improbable, back-to-back long-range 3s, by the Big Ten’s two leading scorers. After what looked like a comeback for the Buckeyes, Carr’s final shot put Penn State on top, which gave the Buckeyes their first loss in Big Ten play.But it was not just the game-winning shot by Carr that put the Nittany Lions in the position to beat Ohio State. The buzzer-beating 3 was just the shot that capped it off.“We’ve got to be more assertive when we start off the game. We didn’t lose on that last shot,” Tate said. “They played a great game.”Carr led both teams with 28 points. He was 4-for-5 from 3 and 10-for-14 in the paint. The Nittany Lions were hot from behind the arc the entire night, hitting 11-of-14 triples. Penn State’s 58.3 shooting percentage was the highest Ohio State allowed to a Big Ten opponent so far this season. “I feel like we definitely outplayed them from the tip. We were just more focused. We were just more hungry,” Carr said. “Big kudos to [Bates-]Diop. He made tough shots down the stretch.”Bates-Diop finished with 25 points, shooting 4-for-6 from 3. He did his job with 10 seconds remaining and the ball in his hands. It just wasn’t enough to fix the damage already done.
Scarborough earthquake causes £10,000 worth of 10ps to fall of their ledge and means 100s of whack-a-moles needs to be re-housedTwitter user The earthquake struck in the North Sea off YorkshireCredit:Telegraph The town was reportedly founded by vikings, and in 1914 it was shelled by the German fleet, so it takes more than an earthquake to rattle the people of Scarborough.In fact, most of them barely noticed the tremor that struck on Tuesday evening, despite it being one of the biggest to hit the UK in almost a decade. Dr Brian Baptie, from the BGS, said that record-breaking earthquake was around 3,000 times bigger in terms of energy released and that it had been felt widely across Britain, the east of Ireland, as well as the north-west continental coast.“On average there is about one earthquake of this [week’s] size in or around the British Isles each year,” he said.“I would not expect an earthquake of this size to be strongly felt at this distance, as the amplitude of the ground shaking decays the function of distance from the epicentre.”The most severe earthquake of recent years took, which took place in 2008 had its epicentre in Market Rasen, Lincolnshire, and was felt as far away as Aberdeen and Bournemouth.There were no deaths, but one man suffered a broken piece of chimney fell through the roof onto his bed.By contrast, the effects of Tuesday’s earthquake seem to have been mainly satirical and focused in part on the town’s seaside resort heritage.Ol Crabtree tweeted: “Scarborough earthquake causes £10,000 worth of 10ps to fall of their ledge and means 100s of whack-a-moles needs to be re-housed.”Meanwhile Carl Jones posted a picture of the Medieval ruins of Scarborough Castle, with the caption “Hard to believe that, only yesterday, this was a Travelodge”.A number of internet users also mused over the possibility of the offshore earthquake triggering a catastrophic tsunami.But Dr Beatie explained that tremors of this size do not generate dangerous waves.“Such waves generally only occur if the earthquake causes significant vertical displacement of the sea floor, which typically requires earthquake magnitudes of 7 or greater,” he said.“Studies of the 1931 earthquake in the North Sea do not suggest any evidence of tsunami waves being generated.” Want the best of The Telegraph direct to your email and WhatsApp? Sign up to our free twice-daily Front Page newsletter and new audio briefings. One lady lost control of her frying pan, but aside from that, any damage appears to have been wryly self-inflicted, as residents went online to mock the severity of the 3.8-magnitude quake.“We will rebuild” and “#prayforScarborough” were just some of the comments annotating a picture of a capsized deckchair, while a video of an inch-high wave washing over an elderly person’s feet came with a “tsunami warning”.The local tourism industry wasted no time in exploiting an authentically Yorkshire earthquake, if only to describe the event as “less moving” than the famous local coastline.Much of the local reaction, however, was couched in a tone of disappointment that the tectonic phenomenon was not more dramatic.“In case you were wondering, we never felt the earthquake. Life is just boringly normal,” tweeted Lesley Newton, a mother from the town.The British Geological Survey (BGS) said the tremor was “barely perceptible” because it took place 11 miles beneath the North Sea, and about 90 miles away from Scarborough.At 3.8-magnitude, it fell significantly short of Britain’s largest recorded earthquake, a 6.1 tremor in 1931 whose epicentre in the Dogger Bank area was 30 miles southwest of this week’s event.